摘要:在全球气候变暖的总体趋势下,新疆干旱区的气候也正在发生相应的变化｡利用石河子垦区3个气象台站1961~2009年的气候变化和棉花产量变化资料新疆棉花事实全过程,采用距平百分率､线性倾向估计､趋势系数､滑动t检验､回归分析等方法,分析了石河子垦区的气候变化及棉花产量变化特征｡结果表明,石河子地区年均气温､年总降水量及年总日照时数均呈上升趋势,上升的幅度气温变化倾向率为0.3℃/10年,年总降水量为10.3mm/10年,年日照时数为6.46h/10年;棉花产量呈明显增加的趋势｡近50年来石河子地区气候的变暖､降水量的增加､日照时数的增加均有利于棉花产量的提高｡
关键词:气候变化;棉花产量;石河子垦区;线性回归
The Relationship between Climate Change and Yield of Cotton in Shihezi Region
Abstract: With the overall tendency of global warming, the climate of Shihezi region also changed correspondingly. The variation characters of climate and yield of cotton in Shihezi region were analyzed based on the data of climate and yield of cotton from three weather stations of Shihezi region in 1961~2009, by using methods of anomaly percentage, linear trend estimation, trend coefficient, sliding t test, regression analysis and so on. The results showed that the air temperature, the annual rainfall and the annual average sunshine all showed an increasing trend during the fluctuations. The increase of the air temperature, annual rainfall, and sunshine hours were 0.3°C/10 years, 10.3mm/10 years, and 6.46h/10 years respectively., The yield of cotton presented obvious increasing trend. The climate warming and the increase of rainfall and sunshine hours during over 50 years in Shihezi helped to increase the yield of cotton.
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