Rabobank To Go
US restaurants: Have consumers lost their appetite? 美国餐馆：消费者失去胃口了吗？
This is the first issue of what will become a regular publication analysing the global food service industry. Rabobank To Go is intended to provide commentary on current market developments, to integrate Rabobank knowledge from across the value chain, and to express our views regarding future trends for the industry. This first issue focuses on the US market, setting the scene in terms of recent performance, challenges, opportunities, and outlook. We hope that this becomes an interactive experience, and we encourage our readership to reach out to the authors with feedback and comments.
这将成为分析全球食品服务业的定期出版物的首期。Rabobank To Go 旨在为当前市场发展提供解说，以及从整个价值链整合拉博银行知识，对于行业未来趋势发表我们的观点。第一期的重点是美国市场，从最近的表现、挑战、机遇和前景等方面来阐述这一点。我们希望这能成为一种互动的体验，并鼓励读者通过反馈和评论与作者沟通。
Industry outlook 行业展望
Rabobank expects the restaurant industry’s performance to improve, albeit modestly, during 2H 2017.
拉博银行预计下半年餐饮业的业绩将改善，尽管增幅不大。
Consumers will continue to show restraint as a result of rising inflation, real wage stagnation, and an uncertain policy and global environment.
由于通货膨胀、实际工资停滞、以及不确定的政策和全球环境问题，将持续抑制消费。
Rabobank’s Burger Index shows that food prices saw some strengthening in Q1, which is expected to continue, narrowing the gap between grocery and food service prices.
拉博银行汉堡指数显示，食品价格在第一季度有所增强，预计将继续，从而缩小食品杂货和食品服务价格之间的差距。
While most new minimum-wage increases will not take effect until January 2018, labour costs will continue to pressure restaurants’ cost base.
虽然大多数新的增加最低工资将到2018年1月才会生效，但劳动力成本将继续挤压餐馆的成本基础。
Restaurant oversupply will continue to pressure sales, but easier comparable sales will allow same-store sales to return to positive territory. Competition will remain heated as new players and channels continue to gain relevance.
Eating out tonight? 今晚出去吃？
In the US, spending on food away from home has increased steadily for the past decades and surpassed spending on groceries (food at home) for the first time ever in 2015 (see Figure 1).
在美国，在过去的几十年里，在外饮食的消费稳步增长，并在2015首次超过了食品杂货（家庭食品）的支出（见图1）。
荷兰vs美国预测分析This structural change in eating habits is a result of changing lifestyles—as time becomes scarcer and the number of people per household shrinks, consumers increasingly favour the convenience of meals cooked by someone else. It is also the result of generational changes and millennials’ eating patterns, as they tend to spend more on food and eating out than previous generations did.
饮食习惯的这种结构性的变化是由于生活方式的改变，随着时间变得珍贵和户均人口减少，
消费者越来越青睐由他人做饭的便利性。这也是代际变化和千禧一代的饮食模式的结果，因为他们往往在食物上花费更多和比起前几代人更倾向外出就餐。
Since peaking in 2015, however, the growth rate of spending on food away from home (measured in sales at food service establishments and drinking places) has slowed down, from 8% in 2015 to 4% for the first five months of 2017. The impact of this slowdown is being felt by the industry’s main players.
然而，自2015年达到高峰以来，在外饮食的支出增长率（以食品服务机构和餐饮的销售额为衡量标准）有所放缓，从2015年的8%下降到2017年前五个月的4%。行业的主要参与者正在感受增长放缓带来的影响。
According to TDn2K's restaurant-industry snapshot data, which includes sales and traffic numbers for over 150 restaurant brands, traffic growth has been negative since early 2015, and same-store sales growth has been negative since February 2016.1 Traffic is down 3.5% YTD, and same-store sales are down 1.4% compared to 2016 (see Figure 2).
根据tdn2k餐饮行业的数据，包括超过150家餐饮品牌的销售和流量，自2015年初以来，流量增长一直呈负增长，而同店销售增长自2016年二月以来下跌3.5%，同店销售同比2016年下跌1.4%。（见图2）。
These global numbers mask some differences between restaurant categories (see Figure 3). Casual dining has experienced the sharpest decline in same-store sales, with an average decline of 1.6% in Q1 2017, while quick-service restaurants (QSR) reported a modest 0.7% growth. QSRs benefit from a lower price point, as consumers are more likely t
o cut spending on higher-value meals than on more staple-like QSR menu items, as well as from their recent efforts into store remodelling, and menu innovation and reformulation, which have had a positive effect on consumer spending.
这些全球数据掩盖了餐厅类别之间的一些差异（见图3）。休闲餐饮经历了同店销售下滑幅度最大，在2017年第一季度平均下降1.6%，而快餐增长0.7%。快餐受益于较低的价格，较之其快餐菜单中的主食，消费者倾向在更高价值的饭菜上削减支出，以及近来在餐厅重塑方面的努力，菜单的创新和改造，已对消费者支出的产生积极作用。
Fast casuals, which until recently were the bright spot in the food service industry, have seen declining same-store sales in the past year, heavily influenced by Chipotle’s losses. But it’s not all about Chipotle. In fact, Q1 numbers show a 0.3% contraction, which actually worsens to a 2.3% decline when omitting Chipotle, since the company’s Q1 numbers put them back in positive territory. In a way, the sector is a victim of its own success. First, higher comparable sales are harder to maintain. Additionally, the success of the sector has led to a proliferation of new concepts, as well as more and more premium offerings at increasingly higher price points, eventually testing consumers’ willingness to spend.
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